Yes, You Do Need A Three. Here's why.

Ron Franklin and Fran Fraschilla were calling the Oklahoma State - Oklahoma game last night and OSU trailed by 3 with 18 seconds left. Fraschilla argued that OSU did not need to get a 3 in this scenario. Inevitably, commentators make this statement in similar situations, and, also inevitably, this drives Pun City nuts.

Pun City has no empirical evidence for this argument, and doesn't claim that it will get any in the near future (or ever, really). So that caveat's out of the way, but this blog will attempt to attack this with logic.

When you are down by 3, and you have less than 40 seconds remaining, it is ridiculous to go for anything other than a three. In doing so, you either are choosing to A) Put the game in your opponent's hands; or, at best, B) Limiting your own effectiveness toward the end of winning the game.

Let's cover A, putting the game in your opponent's hands. This is the worst-case scenario. The reason Pun City is saying you are putting the game in your opponent's hands is as follows: going for a 2-pointer means that you have to rely on your opponent to make a mistake in order to even have a chance.

Hoops fans might already know the only mistake that would solve your immediate need (tying the game) would be your opponent fouling you on the 2-pointer. While possible, there are enormous obstacles to overcome in order to reach the goal of a tie. You either need to make a 2-pointer when you are being fouled.

A rundown of the possible scenarios:

Making a 3:

Immediate Scenario - Game Tied, Opponent has possession and less time (or overtime begins).

Possible Outcomes - Stop for overtime or possible win, opponent scores for loss.

End Result - Overtime is possible win or loss, regulation loss or win.

Positives - Maximum amount of time to get a player open for a 3-pointer. Game is tied. Opponent now has less time (if any) and needs to score instead of running out clock and receiving a foul. Could possibly steal in regulation and win. Getting fouled on the 3 is possible, could have 4-point play or make 3 free throws in this scenario as well. Overtime win a 50-50 preposition otherwise. Rebound basket possible, which could lead to all 2-point scenarios with less time.

Negatives - Opponent has the ball and can hold for last shot. Longer shot. Opponents know you are looking for a 3. Can possibly be down more than 1 possession if this fails.

Making a 2, getting fouled, and made FT:

Immediate Scenario - Game Tied, Opponent has possession and less time (or overtime begins).

Possible Outcomes - Stop for overtime or possible win, opponent scores for loss.

End Result - Overtime is a possible win or loss, regulation loss or win.

Positives - Shorter distance on the shot. Game is tied. Opponent has less time (if any) and needs to score instead of running clock and receiving foul. Steal for win in regulation. Overtime a 50-50 chance. Penetration could create open 3.

Negatives - Could get an offensive foul when trying to create contact. Relying on the opponent to make a mistake, also requires 2 shots. Opponents know you are trying to get fouled. Scenario requires a made shot while being fouled. Could possibly be down more than one possession if this fails.

Making a 2, getting fouled, and missing FT:

Immediate Scenario - Down 1, need rebound or immediate foul.

Possible Outcomes - Rebound and make for win, rebound and miss for loss, no rebound for loss.

End Result - Overtime highly unlikely. This is the shortest scenario, all-or-nothing.

Positives - Higher chance of winning in regulation among theses scenarios. Will not be trailing by over 1 possession after opponent's free throws.

Negatives - Could get an offensive foul when trying to create contact. Relying on opponent to make a mistake, also requires 2 shots. Opponents know you are trying to get fouled. Scenario requires a made shot while being fouled. Less time after opponent's free throws, still down. Possibly down 3 with less time than you began with.

Making a 2, no foul:

Immediate Scenario - Down 1, need rebound or immediate foul.

Possible Outcomes - Foul, Steal, Time expires for loss.

End Result - Foul shots either put you down 1, 2, or 3. Less time to score again, though possibly a shorter shot required. Steal creates game-ending possession, make for win, miss for loss. If opponent passes successfully and avoids your defense, time expires.

Positives - Very likely shot will be uncontested. Shorter shot. Will not be down over 1 possession after opponent's free throws.

Negatives - Relying on an opponent to miss free throws. Less time after opponent's free throws, still down. Possibly down 3 with less time than you began with.

Missing a 3, no foul:

Immediate Scenario - Down 3, need immediate foul, 2 missed free throws, and a 3.

Possible Outcomes - Foul, steal

End Result - Foul shots put you down 3, 4, or 5. Less time to score again. Steal or 2 missed free throws only chance at tying. 1 made FT and you lose.

Positives - None.

Missing a 2, no foul:
Immediate Scenario - Down 3, need immediate foul, 2 missed free throws, and a 3.
Possible Outcomes - Foul, steal
End Result - Foul shots put you down 3, 4, or 5. Less time to score again. Steal or 2 missed free throws only chance at tying. 1 made FT and you lose.
Positives - None.

Pun City believes that having the chance to "control your own destiny" and having the maximum time possible to run a play for a 3-pointer gives you the best (by far) chance to win the game. Relying on an opponent to foul you, turn the ball over in under 35 seconds, or miss excessive amounts of free throws is taking too great of a chance as compared to running a play for a 3-pointer. Maybe the odds of getting the 3 to go are 1 in 6. That's gotta beat the chances of each domino falling of made 2 (maybe 40%), getting a foul (maybe 20%, meaning you have an 8% chance of the combo), and/or getting the missed free throws or a turnover. Even if one of these comes through, it's gotta be less than an 8% chance to add to the 8% you have, plus the made 3 option gives you extra opportunity with the overtime, this blog estimates half a chance there, giving the made 3 a 24% chance as opposed to 16% on the house of cards going for 2 gives you. In conclusion, no Fran, you need to go for a 3.